The player should raise on any pair or better, fold on anything less than ace/king, and should sometimes raise and sometimes fold on ace/king. To play Caribbean stud perfectly would involve memorizing the charts in my appendix on when exactly to raise on ace/king. Of course nobody is going to do that so a more simplified strategy is clearly called for. By studying the appendix you will notice certain paterns of when the odds favor raising and when they don’t. I have summarized these patterns in the following suggested rules of thumb on when to raise on ace/king:
Raise if the dealer’s card is a 2 through queen and matches one of yours.
Raise if the dealer’s card is an ace or king and you have a queen or jack in your hand.
Raise if the dealer’s rank does not match any of yours and you have a queen in your hand and the dealer’s card is less than your fourth highest card.
This strategy is unique to this page but is not the only strategy I have heard of. Following are various other strategies, their total loss based on all possible 19,933,230,517,200 combinations of hands, the house edge, and the “element of risk” (defined below). The “matching rank” strategy calls for raising on any pair or better and on ace/king when one of the player’s cards matches the rank of the dealer’s up card (which lowers theคาสิโนออนไลน์odds of the dealer forming a pair).
Strategy Statistics in Caribbean Stud Poker
Strategy
Total loss
House edge
Element of risk
Perfect strategy
1,041,372,912,372
5.224%
2.555%
Three rules of thumb (above)
1,041,417,758,724
5.225%
2.554%
Raise on ace/king/jack/8/3 or better
1,059,715,400,580
5.316%
2.596%
Matching rank
1,063,176,931,284
5.334%
2.616%
Raise on any pair or better
1,090,272,101,460
5.470%
2.738%
Raise on any ace/king or better
1,132,600,203,540
5.682%
2.672%
Playing blind (raise on everything)
3,310,360,338,060
16.607%
5.536%
House Edge, Element of Risk
Any respectable book will tell you that the house edge in Caribbean stud poker is about 5.2%. This is true but I have always felt it unfairly makes the game look like a bad bet. The reason is in how the house edge is defined, the ratio of average money lost to the original bet. In Caribbean stud the player will roughly wager just as much in raises as in antes, and this additional money bet is not considered in the house edge statistic.
For purposes of comparison to other games I think it is better to consider the ratio of money lost to total money wagered, which I refer to as the “element of risk.” The element of risk using perfect strategy is 2.555%, which makes is look more competitive compared to other games, although still not one of the best. It is interesting to note that the element of risk for my three rules of thumb is better than for perfect strategy! That is because raising on slightly suboptimal plays is actually a better bet than the game as a whole and brings down the average expected loss.
Credit should be given to Stanley Ko, Professor John M. Gwynn Jr, and the late Peter Griffin for being the first to do a thorough study of Caribbean stud poker. Due largely on the complexities of when to raise on ace/king this is one of the most complicated casino games to analyze. Thanks to their analysis, which they kindly shared with me, I had something to check my work against.
Statistics
The following tables shows the various possible outcomes in caribbean stud poker, their net return per initial bet, their probability, and their total return (product of probability and net return).
Statistics for Caribbean Stud Poker
Event/winning hand
Pays
Number
Total return
Probability
Average return
Ace/king
3
18,505,682,208
55,517,046,624
0.00092838
0.00278515
Pair
3
2,324,742,321,600
6,974,226,964,800
0.11662647
0.34987941
Two pair
5
488,012,139,360
2,440,060,696,800
0.02448234
.12241170
Three of a kind
7
234,242,908,320
1,639,700,358,240
0.01175138
0.08225964
Straight
9
43,805,516,100
394,249,644,900
0.00219761
0.01977851
lush
11
21,856,990,280
240,426,893,080
0.00109651
0.01206161
Full house
15
16,624,475,280
249,367,129,200
0.00083401
0.01251012
Four of a kind
41
2,832,435,800
116,129,867,800
0.0001421
0.00582594
Straight flush
101
156,929,720
15,849,901,720
0.00000787
0.00079515
Royal flush
201
16,759,740
3,368,707,740
0.00000084
0.00016900
Ante only
1
4,532,514,033,720
4,532,514,033,720
0.22738482
0.22738482
Push
0
321,623,100
0
0.00001614
0
Fold
-1
9,523,005,974,460
-9,523,005,974,460
0.47774524
-0.47774524
Dealer wins
-3
2,726,592,727,512
-8,179,778,182,536
0.13678629
-0.41035888
Total
19,933,230,517,200
-1,041,372,912,372
1
-0.05224306
Australian – Starnet/World Gaming Rules
At the Star City casino in Pyrmont NSW Australia a royal flush pays 250 to 1. At Starnet online casinos a royal flush pays 200 to 1. This lowers the house edge to 5.20% at the Star City casino and 5.21% at Starnet casinos.
Progressive Jackpot Side Bet
In Caribbean Stud Poker the player has the choice to make a side bet of $1 which pays for hands of a flush or better. The specific payoff tables vary from place to place but always feature a progressive jackpot, paying 100% of the jackpot meter for a royal flush and 10% for a straight flush. In the very unlikely event that two players had a royal flush in the same hand at most places the first one to the dealer’s left would win the jackpot and the second would win whatever the jackpot is reseeded to, usually $10,000 or $20,000. Some places would split the jackpot between the two players. In the event that two players received a straight flush at the same time the first one to the dealer left would get 10% of the meter and the second would get 10% of what was left after the first player was paid. In other words it pays to sit as close as possible to the dealer’s left.
While the expected return varies depending on the size of the jackpot it is a sucker bet the vast majority of time. The average house edge is 26.46%.
A manager at Casino Niagara kindly explained how the jackpot meter works. For every dollar bet 71 cents goes into the jackpot and the casino keeps the other 29 cents. This rate of contribution can vary from place to place. All payoffs are paid right out of the meter. Every time somebody hits a royal flush the house contributes $10,000 (called the seed) to the next jackpot. The house edge is just under the cut per bet because the casino puts up the initial seed to start a new jackpot after somebody wins the previous one. At the Casino Niagara the house can expect to recieve 18.84 times as much money from the 29% cut as it pays to seed new jackpots.
The table below shows four different payoff tables I have seen. It should not be interpreted that a casino with a payoff table that pays more for a flush, full house, and four a kind is being generous. Since these payoffs come out of the meter the casino is indifferent to any win other than a royal flush (causing them to have to reseed the meter). The money in the meter can be considered the players money because it is only a matter of time before somebody wins it all.
Caribbean Stud Progressive Jackpot Side Bet
Payoff Tables
Hand
Payoff
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
Table 6
Table 7
Royal flush
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Straight flush
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
Four of a kind
$100
$150
$500
$500
$500
$500
$500
Full house
$75
$100
$100
$150
$75
$100
$150
Flush
$50
$50
$50
$75
$50
$75
$100
Below is a key to some of the casino where each payoff table above can be found. Unless otherwise stated the casino is in Las Vegas.
Table 1: Ballys, Paris, California, Las Vegas Club, Hilton
Table 2: Luxor, Excalibur, Mandalay Bay, Monte Carlo
Table 3: Bellagio, Venetian, Rio, Every casino in Atlantic City, Casino Niagara (Niagara Falls, Ontario), Grand (Tunica), Gold Strike (Tunica), Ballys (Tunica), Sheraton (Tunica), Isle of Capri (Tunica), Hollywood (Tunica), Harrah’s (Tunica)
Table 4: Harrah’s, Circus Circus
Table 5: Flamingo Hilton
Table 6: Imperial Palace, Horseshoe (Tunica)
Table 7: Star City (Pyrmont NSW, Australia)
To calculate an exact payback use the following formulas where j equals the jackpot meter:
Table 1: (598,600+7.6*j)/2,598,960
Table 2: (723,400+7.6*j)/2,598,960
Table 3: (941,800+7.6*j)/2,598,960
Table 4: (1,256,700+7.6*j)/2,598,960
Table 5: (848,200+7.6*j)/2,598,960
Table 6: (1,069,500+7.6*j)/2,598,960
Table 7: (1,384,400+7.6*j)/2,598,960
The next table shows what the jackpot level would have to be for various rates of return. For example to have a break even chance at the side bet at a casino with payoff table 1 the meter would have to be at least $263,205. One visit to a casino should illustrate the typcial jackpot levels are extremely far from the breakeven point and hopefully will convince you to avoid this bet.
Caribbean Stud Progressive Jackpot Side Bet
Expected Returns
Average
Return
Jackpot Meter
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
Table 6
Table 7
5%
-61,665
-78,086
-106,823
-148,257
-94,507
-123,625
-165,059
10%
-44,566
-60,987
-89,724
-131,158
-77,408
-106,527
-147,961
15%
-27,468
-43,889
-72,626
-114,060
-60,310
-89,428
-130,863
20%
-10,369
-26,791
-55,527
-96,962
-43,212
-72,330
-113,764
25%
6,729
-9,692
-38,429
-79,863
-26,113
-55,232
-96,666
30%
23,827
7,406
-21,331
-62,765
-9,015
-38,133
-79,567
35%
40,926
24,505
-4,232
-45,666
8,084
-21,035
-62,469
40%
58,024
41,603
12,866
-28,568
25,182
-3,936
-45,371
45%
75,123
58,702
29,965
-11,469
42,281
13,162
-28,272
50%
92,221
75,800
47,063
5,629
59,379
30,261
-11,174
55%
109,319
92,898
64,162
22,727
76,477
47,359
5,925
60%
126,418
109,997
81,260
39,826
93,576
64,457
23,023
65%
143,516
127,095
98,358
56,924
110,674
81,556
40,122
70%
160,615
144,194
115,457
74,023
127,773
98,654
57,220
75%
177,713
161,292
132,555
91,121
144,871
115,753
74,318
80%
194,812
178,391
149,654
108,219
161,969
132,851
91,417
85%
211,910
195,489
166,752
125,318
179,068
149,949
108,515
90%
229,008
212,587
183,851
142,416
196,166
167,048
125,614
95%
246,107
229,686
200,949
159,515
213,265
184,146
142,712
100%
263,205
246,784
218,047
176,613
230,363
201,245
159,811
105%
280,304
263,883
235,146
193,712
247,462
218,343
176,909
110%
297,402
280,981
252,244
210,810
264,560
235,442
194,007
115%
314,501
298,079
269,343
227,908
281,658
252,540
211,106
120%
331,599
315,178
286,441
245,007
298,757
269,638
228,204
125%
348,697
332,276
303,539
262,105
315,855
286,737
245,303
The house edge will depend directly on the progressive meter at any given moment. However over the long haul the casino will enjoy a healthy house edge from the Caribbean Stud side bet. It is typical for the casino to put about 70% to 75% of money bet in the jackpot meter and hold onto the rest. Every casino I have asked reseeds the jackpot meter with either $10,000 or $20,000 after somebody hits a royal flush which will cost 1.539% of money bet per $10,000 the meter is reseeded with. So the house edge will be 1.539% or 3.078% less than whatever cut it keeps for every dollar bet. At the Casino Niagara for example where they keep 29% the house edge will be 27.461%.
Caribbean Stud Online
Microgaming, Starnet/World Gaming, and Cryptologic online casinos offer Caribbean Stud Poker. They use different names but the rules are almost the sames. Microgaming calls the game Cyberstud Poker and Starnet/World Gaming and Cryptologic call it Caribbean Poker, removing the word Stud. Starnet uses the same paytable as used in real casinos. Cryptologic doubles the royal flush payoff to 200:1. Microgaming changed almost every hand, making a two pair pay only even money but increasing the payoff on everything from a straight to a royal flush. The following is the Microgaming payoff table.
Microgaming Payoff Table
Hand
Pays
Royal flush
999:1
Straight flush
199:1
Four of a kind
99:1
Full house
14:1
Flush
9:1
Straight
5:1
Three of a kind
3:1
Two pair
1:1
Pair
1:1
Ace/king
1:1
The house edge under the Microgaming rules is 5.01%. Under the Cryptologic rules the house edge is only slightly better at 5.21%.